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Mike
 May 8, 05 - 10:03 PM |
New here #2
Here is the rest of it. Financials The financial statements of a company is today my biggest weakness, as I have yet to learn enough about them to be confident, that is why the following is all by KitKat, followed by a link where KitKat and OTR explain how to get the ratios. 2004 2003 2003 2001 2000current ratio 2.8 4.0 3.0 3.2 3.0quick ratio 0.0056 0.0111 0.1898 0.0095 0.0234AR growth 75% -3% -1% 5% DSO 67.7 62.3 63.2 70.0 70.4inventory days 241.9 163.3 117.5 156.4 109.4growth in payables 80% -5% 92% -27% growth in inventory 124% 33% -15% 48% CCC 273.0 194.8 149.6 208.0 153.8ROE 13% 9% 11% 16% 9%ROA 6% 6% 7% 11% 6%ROIC 9% 9% 10% 14% 19%debt/equity 66.2% 15.0% 9.3% 22.2% 18.0%debt/capital 40% 13% 9% 18% 15%book value 18.4 16.5 15.3 13.2 11.2cash/share $0.07 $0.05 $1.03 $0.04 $0.08 NC WC 114.9 56.1 41.7 54.5 36.4change in NC WC 58.8 14.4 -12.8 18.1 36.4increase in LT debt 21.3 4.2 -2 -2 7.7payable days outstanding 36.5 30.8 31.1 18.4 26.0Annual income statement ratios 2004 2003 2002 2001 2000gross margins 23% 19% 16% 19% 18%operating margins 8% 8% 8% 10% 11%net margins 5% 5% 5% 8% 4%growth revenue 61% -2% 9% 5% growth gross 101% 13% -9% 14%growth operating 61% 3% -16% 0%growth net 59% -6% -35% 113% growth COGS 51% -4% 14% 3% growth SGA 135% 12% 7% 36% growth EPS diluted 60% 2% -30% 102% growth EPS 59% 1% -29% 108% tax rate 33% 38% 33% 9% 2%increase in interest 271% 0% -46% -82% Annual cash flow statement ratios 2004 2003 2002 2001 2000growth in operating cash flow 1430% -104% 3044% -105% operating cash/revenue 6% -1% 20% -1% 14%operating cash/net income 137% -16% 408% -9% 351%operating cash/debt+interest 0.56 -0.37 9.81 -0.092 1.75growth capex 1043% -11% 66% 52% capex/operating cash 404% 470% 20% 356% 13%free cash flow -40.4 -5.7 21.2 -4.1 14.4free cash flow/share $(9.85) $(1.43) $5.30 $(0.85) $3.00 And am in the process of adding ** allowance for doubtful accounts/receivables yoy or quarter to quarter you really don't want to see the ratio declining as receivables and sales increase **price /tangible book value And am looking for more all the time http://boards.fool.com/Message.asp?mid=22189974&sort=whole#22190127 Competitive Advantage Before attempting to value a company you must access its competitive advantages -- does it have them and how good are they. Like Warren Buffet says, the best companies are the ones with the biggest moats. For competitive advantage I like to refer to this article: http://www.fool.com/news/commentary/2005/commentary05010603.htm Valuation What it all comes down to is what the company's intrinsic value is and if it has a margin of safety. First we must value the company. To properly value a company you must try to predict the future cashflows of the business, and then discount them by the proper rate. The best way to do this is by using a multiple stage DCF model. By doing this you can predict a high rate of growth for the next five years, a lower growth rate for the next ten years, and then a very low rate for eternity. I prefer to use an eleven-percent discount rate for all my valuations and change the margin of safety I need depending on the risk of an investment. Benjamin Graham, the grandfather of value investing, started the Margin of Safety concept. The Margin of Safety was designed to lower risk, it is the percent difference between the intrinsic value and the current stock price, the intrinsic value is the numerator. To lower risk it would be best to find the highest Margin of Safety you can. More on the DCF: http://www.fool.com/news/commentary/2005/commentary05032803.htm http://www.fool.com/news/commentary/2004/commentary04102502.htm http://www.fool.com/news/foth/2002/foth020917.htm More on Margin of Safety: http://www.fool.com/news/commentary/2004/commentary04111201.htm |
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